A Multi-Model Framework Integrating Climate Projections and System Degradation for Climate-Aware Retrofit Planning

Abstract: Current building energy simulations often rely on static assumptions, neglecting dynamic factors such as climate change and component degradation, leading to performance gaps and suboptimal retrofit decisions. This research applies a multi-modelling approach that integrates climate projections with building envelope and HVAC degradation models within an automated workflow. Using an office building case study, the results demonstrate the efficacy of multi-modelling while also improving understanding of maintenance–retrofit trade-offs under climate uncertainty. The analysis reveals key sensitivities and limitations of dynamic energy modelling, advancing insight into how multi-modelling can support climate-aware, lifecycle-oriented retrofit decision-making.