Heating Demand as an Indicator of Renovation Depth in Soviet-Era Apartment Buildings

Abstract: Incremental renovation creates uncertain inputs for archetype-based UBEM, especially in Soviet-era apartment blocks with incomplete renovation records. This study evaluated whether heating demand can indicate renovation depth (none/partial/deep) for 44 buildings in Mustamäe, Tallinn (464A and 317A series). Using the REST tool, this study simulated typical single and combined envelope upgrades and derived the lowest and highest heating-demand ranges. Heating demand decreases consistently with renovation depth and isolates deep renovation, but several partial renovation states overlap. Tier thresholds differ by building series, and a best-case sensitivity test confirms the robustness of these patterns.